UK Advertising Festive Quarter Forecast

The Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report, reported by DailyDOOH on October 29, 2026, forecasts UK advertising investment of £14.0bn in Q4 2026, an 8.2% year-on-year increase that the report puts at a £1.06bn gain over the same period in 2025. The report also records Q2 2026 investment of £12.3bn, up 11.0%, and projects full-year 2026 spend of £51.3bn, 9.9% above the prior year, with a further 6.5% rise to £54.7bn in 2027. Stephen Woodford, chief executive of the Advertising Association, and Suzy Young, head of media data at WARC, comment in the report.

Festive quarter and multi-year outlook

Q4 2026 investment is forecast at £14.0bn, up 8.2% year-on-year, which the report describes as a £1.06bn increase on Q4 2025. Across the festive period, social media is projected to rise 18.5% year-on-year, retail media 16.2% and addressable TV 15.1%, while cinema grows 8.6% and search 7.8%. Out of home is forecast to increase 7.5%, with digital out of home up 9.5%, and further gains are expected for digital radio (4.7%), direct mail (1.8%), total TV (1.6%) and online classified (1.6%). The report attributes the out-of-home increase to higher high-street footfall during the golden quarter.

Beyond the quarter, full-year 2026 UK advertising investment is forecast at £51.3bn, a 9.9% increase on 2025 and an upward revision of 1.8 percentage points against the July 2026 forecast. Growth is led by retail media at 23.0%, social media at 20.7% and addressable TV at 14.7%, with further gains across out of home (10.8%), search (9.1%), digital radio (9.1%), cinema (6.9%), direct mail (4.1%) and total TV (0.9%). For 2027, total spend is projected at £54.7bn, a 6.5% increase, driven by social media (13.3%), retail media (13.0%) and addressable TV (10.9%), alongside search (6.6%), digital radio (4.2%), digital out of home (4.3%) and TV (1.7%).

Q2 2026 channel performance

The report also points to Q2 2026, when total advertising investment rose 11.0% year-on-year to £12.3bn. Retail media took an 8.4% share of total investment and grew 31.2%, as the channel opened more touchpoints along the consumer journey. Cinema rose 24.5%, which the report links to releases including The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Toy Story 5. Double-digit growth was recorded for social media (22.2%), out of home (12.7%) and addressable TV (12.7%), with smaller gains for search (9.3%), direct mail (4.5%), online classified (4.4%), digital radio (3.2%) and TV (2.6%).

Suzy Young, head of media data at WARC, said Q2 2026 investment remained strong despite geopolitical headwinds and weak consumer confidence linked to the Middle East conflict. Growth was boosted by the FIFA World Cup, she said, but increasingly reflects AI investment, as platforms enhance targeting and new AI-native and established technology firms compete for customers, a dynamic she said improves efficiency while generating new demand. Stephen Woodford, chief executive of the Advertising Association, said UK advertising continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum during the golden quarter.

Why it matters

For a microbusiness, the forecast describes a market where advertising demand is expected to keep rising through 2026 and into 2027, across channels that include social media, retail media, addressable TV, search and out of home. A small advertiser may find more competition for attention in the fastest-growing channels, which can put pressure on costs during the busiest periods.

The festive quarter figures also suggest that out-of-home and digital out-of-home are expected to grow alongside higher high-street footfall, a point of interest for businesses that use screens or local placements to reach shoppers. The report's channel breakdown can help a small business compare where spend is flowing before setting its own budget, rather than treating the headline totals as a reason to spend more.